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 1. The wholesale energy markets have been through a significant crisis over the last 18 months: 

• Wholesale electricity and gas prices increased by over 300% between Mar and Jun 2022 
• This was largely driven by significant increase in global coal and gas prices 
• This triggered market intervention by the government in a price cap on coal and gas 

Wholesale prices have moderated significantly and stabilised: 

• Prices have since significantly moderated, and now have stabilised at levels around 2018 
• These levels are still nearly double the very low prices of the mid-late 2020s 

2. Aust Electricity Price Comparison to global coal and gas prices 

Australian electricity prices are largely influenced by global coal and gas prices: 

• The below graph compares a price index of the Australian Wholesale Electricity prices with global prices for coal and gas from 2018 to 2023 
• It is clear that there is a strong correlation between these global commodities and wholesale electricity prices in Australia 
• There is some evidence that coal and gas price indexes maybe a slight leading indicator 
• Recently global coal and gas prices have stabilised while electricity prices are continuing to edge slightly lower 
• This may indicate a good time to recontract for any upcoming renewals 

3. Retiring of coal fired fleet 

The ageing coal fired generation fleet is being brought forward: 

• Expected closure dates for the largest coal fired plants are being brought forward 
• It is forecast that coal capacity will reduce by 50% to less than 10GW by around 2030 
• Rooftop solar installed capacity will likely exceed coal fired capacity as early as 2025 
• It is clear that coal fired generation is on its way out in Australia 

4. The rise and rise of solar 

Rooftop solar continues to be installed in significant volumes 

• The Australian market installs about 2 GW of rooftop solar annually 
• Rooftop solar is now installed across approximately 2.8 million roofs in Australia 
• This amounts to over 18 GWs of solar, similar to the amount of total coal plant in the NEM 
• The UNSW estimate Australia has the potential for 179 GW of rooftop solar, which is sufficient to supply all our current electricity usage. 

Cumulative amount of rooftop solar installed. 

Source: State of the Energy Market 2023 Report